Oscars 2026 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner

Some of Hollywood’s biggest stars will vie to win Best Actor at the Oscars 2026, one year after Adrien Brody was awarded for The Brutalist. I’m excited to once again be in charge of tracking this race throughout awards season for ScreenRant and giving our take on who is the frontrunner, who is rising, and who is falling.

As usual, there is a strong mix of actors with differing careers and awards experience set to be major players in Best Actor. Previous winners like Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis have been linked to the category ever since their respective movies were announced. Timothée Chalamet is in a similar boat thanks to his ascension through the industry.

Having some Oscars history is nice, but voters like to spread the nominations around and give recognition to actors for the first time too. That’s where big names like Dwayne Johnson, Michael B. Jordan, and Jeremy Allen White could become factors. The same may be true for Wagner Moura or Channing Tatum.

There’s still a lot of time left before the actual Best Actor nominations are announced on January 22, 2026, but the race is already starting to take shape. This is how I see things at this point, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.

Commentary and predictions updated on October 30

The Best Actor Nomination Frontrunners

With only five male performances eligible to be nominated by the Academy for Best Actor, the highly competitive field will include several strong contenders who miss the cut. The response to these performances, the awards they’ve received, and Oscar history help act as a guide. Here is my current Oscars 2026 Best Actor nominations prediction:

The big change to this category is the fall of Dwayne Johnson. He seemed to be close to a lock for a nomination for his dramatic swing in The Smashing Machine prior to the film’s release. His work was the highlight of early reactions. The chance for Hollywood to praise one of the industry’s biggest box office stars by turning indie looked too good to pass up.

Everything has changed after The Smashing Machine‘s release. Johnson’s chances are far from completely over, but the more mixed reception to the film, and it tanking at the box office, hasn’t helped its status. With the movie struggling, this may become a matter of whether Johnson’s performance is good enough for the Academy to honor while ignoring the rest of the film.

For that reason, he’s been bumped out of my current predictions in Best Actor. That also means the addition of Ethan Hawke. His starring role in Richard Linklater’s Blue Moon has been consistently praised, including a spot in the Gotham Awards nominations for Outstanding Lead Performance.

To aid Hawke’s case, he’s never won an Oscar before. In fact, he’s never even been nominated in Best Actor. His previous Oscar nominations both came in Best Supporting Actor: Training Day and Boyhood. Academy members may look at Blue Moon as the chance to recognize him once more.

Leonardo DiCaprio looks well-positioned to receive his sixth acting nomination. It’s hard to believe that nearly a decade has passed since his last and only Oscar win, for The Revenant​​​​​​. It seems like he’s in a good position to earn his seventh nomination with One Battle After Another.

DiCaprio delivers an incredibly memorable performance as Bob, making the nomination valid based on his work alone. His attachment to one of the strongest Oscars 2026 Best Picture contenders won’t hurt, though, and could be what propels him past any skepticism.

The question is whether this could become another Killers of the Flower Moon scenario for him, where he’s part of a movie with double-digit nominations, but he’s ignored. That may seem more likely to some after he missed out at the Gotham Awards, but that’s not as big of a concern for Leo thanks to how well-known he is.

The Academy has an opportunity to recognize several of the wonderful One Battle After Another performances. Nominations for Sean Penn, Chase Infiniti, Teyana Taylor, Benicio del Toro, or Regina Hall could leave DiCaprio on the outs if voters want to recognize other films more.

Michael B. Jordan is also in contention for Best Actor and can earn his first Oscar nomination for his work in Sinners. Playing the dual roles of Smoke and Stack wasn’t just technologically impressive for Ryan Coogler to pull off, but Jordan delivered two nuanced, emotional, and layered performances at once.

The strength of his work speaks for itself, and Sinners‘ position as a wide Oscar contender should help his cause. He’s arguably got the best shot at a nomination of the entire cast. His case could be solidified if critics groups and other award bodies recognize him throughout the season.

Yet, questions remain over whether he’ll get in. Jordan will need to find time in his busy schedule to campaign for this nomination. Even if he does, it’s possible voters ignore honoring a single individual performer and instead shine a spotlight on the whole cast through the newly introduced Best Casting category, which awards the casting director, not the ensemble cast.

These are the only performances from my predications that can or have been seen by the public at large. Marty Supreme‘s release in December and The Secret Agent‘s arrival in November are big moments for Chalamet and Moura to solidify their places as major contenders after plenty of early praise.

Moura is the lesser-known star in this group, but he’s achieved some level of recognition for his potential Oscar-nominated performance. When The Secret Agent premiered at Cannes, he was the recipient of the Best Actor award. This is not a major precursor for the Oscars, typically, but it’s given Moura an early advantage over other actors. Momentum has continued with a Gotham nomination.

Chalamet is a more known commodity, and my faith that Marty Supreme would be a major Oscar contender was well placed based on the earliest reactions. The first screening at NYFF didn’t just solidify Chalamet as a lock for a nomination. It positioned him as arguably the face of this category this year.

Actors Still In The Mix

Those five performances are far from sure things to get Best Actor nominations. Many other actors have the time and opportunity to enhance their position, which would inevitably push others down here.

The group of actors who are still very much alive in this race include a great range of familiar faces. A few years after earning a Best Supporting Actor nomination for The Power of the Dog, Jesse Plemons is searching for a nomination for Bugonia.

Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Channing Tatum (Roofman), and Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?) are among the group angling for their first Oscar nominations.

The increased favor for Frankenstein has aided Isaac’s chances, whileEdgerton’s chances could rest largely on whether Train Dreams gets into the Best Picture mix. Meanwhile, Arnett needs Is This Thing On? to really breakthrough upon its release.

Of those potential first-time nominees, White might have the best chance of breaking into the category. He represents the new generation of Hollywood and is terrific in the film. He’s also no stranger to awards success thanks to the acclaim he’s received from The Bear in recent years.

Tatum could hold an edge after receiving the Tribute Performer Award at TIFF, but he’ll need a lot more support from this point forward to really make a name for himself in the awards season.

Image via Paramount Pictures

Will voters go for some of them, or could they favor more familiar names with Oscar history? George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), Russell Crowe (Nuremberg), Cillian Murphy (Steve), and Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest) are all previous winners. Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Player) and Hugh Jackman (Song Sung Blue) are former nominees with a strong chance.

It also feels foolish to totally count out Daniel Day-Lewis, who has the most Best Actor wins of all time. But, Anemone‘s release came and went very fast, and it didn’t generate much conversation for the generational performer. Now that he’s back out of retirement, voters may just wait to see what he does next, rather than award him for this film.

Predicted Best Actor Winner

Best Actor could really go in several directions by the time the 98th Academy Awards happen on March 15, 2026. There are arguments to be made in favor of Hawke, DiCaprio, Jordan, Chalamet, and Moura. But, my opinion on the race has continued to solidify and give the soon-to-be 30-year-old star the edge.

Chalamet is well-positioned to win the Best Actor Oscar this year. He ran a great campaign after his nomination for A Complete Unknown, so much so that his SAG win left me convinced he was going to deliver a surprise upset at the 2025 Oscars and become the youngest Best Actor winner ever.

That didn’t happen, but Marty Supreme is his chance to finally get that recognition. The sports drama looks absolutely thrilling based on the trailer, and Chalamet’s performance will be a big reason why the movie works. A24 clearly has a lot of faith in it with the late December release, which could allow his performance to breathe new life into the race at the right time.

He’s already stolen attention away from other competitors and is viewed by many in the industry as a bright, young star who is making great career choices. It’d make sense for this to be the moment Hollywood crowns him as the next face of the industry, putting him on his path to be one of the greats, as he wants to be.

It also helps that A24 has delivered Best Actor wins in two of the last three years. Chalamet gives them a good chance to go three for four after the Oscars 2026. There’s still so much of this season still to come, though, so whether he’ll still be in this position in a few weeks or months remains to be seen.

ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

Website

https://www.oscars.org/